Does Warsaw have a chance to replace Berlin?
It is no secret that even within the current US administration—including the Pentagon—there is no shortage of proponents for handing over primary responsibility for Europe’s security to Germany as part of a “NATO 3.0” framework. Berlin itself is actively pursuing this goal, a fact reflected in the plans to expand the Bundeswehr. On the other hand, however, there is Donald Trump, who does not seem particularly fond of Germany—a sentiment most recently evidenced by the decision to reduce the number of US troops stationed there.
What you need to know:
For years, the concept of European nations taking greater responsibility for their own security has been circulating within certain U.S. strategic circles.
Germany is expanding the Bundeswehr and declaring its intention to play a larger role in the NATO security architecture.
The debate raises the question of whether Poland could, in the future, become a U.S. partner in Europe as important as Berlin.
The matter is by no means closed, however, especially if changes occur in the White House and Congress. Poland should monitor the situation very closely and take countermeasures, if necessary. Unfortunately, the problem lies in who is currently governing in Warsaw.
Germany as Europe’s Gendarme
The idea of the US handing over responsibility for Europe to Berlin is nothing new; this was already the case during Barack Obama’s presidency. And we remember how that ended.
The era of the “reset” vastly strengthened Russia; it was also then that the first act of aggression against Ukraine took place. The Minsk agreements, negotiated with significant input from Berlin, turned out to be nothing more than a time bomb. Perhaps things would have played out differently under Trump, but we cannot know for sure. It is safe to assume, however, that such a scenario would not have been favorable for Poland.
Germany’s position as the US’s key partner in Europe remains strong yet ambiguous—it certainly does not yet amount to the status of a “viceroy.” Berlin boasts the EU’s largest economy, influence within European institutions, and historic ties to Washington. However, its role is neither a formal “leadership by US mandate” nor a fixed, monolithic one. Rather, it depends on the political context, domestic interests, and the state of transatlantic relations.
What does Germany’s dominant position mean for Poland?
Germany is the United States’ primary economic and political partner in Europe; owing to its leading role in shaping EU policy—including long-term strategy—it often acts as a mediator between the US and European interests. Washington also relies on Germany regarding sanctions, logistics, support for Ukraine, and regional stability.
On the other hand, Berlin’s position is constrained by energy dependencies, constitutional limitations, and public resistance to an overly assertive foreign policy; the relationship with the US is at times strained (disputes over Nord Stream 2, defense burden-sharing, and Afghanistan), and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine forced Germany to rapidly adjust its policies, revealing the limitations of its previous assumptions.
Germany’s role as a US-backed regional leader in Europe—and Berlin’s pivotal position within the European pillar of NATO and the alliance-based security architecture—presents both risks and benefits for Poland. However, the risks outweigh the benefits. In their pursuit of trade and energy stability, Germany might favor compromises with Russia (such as easing sanctions or rapidly normalizing economic ties).
The growing rapprochement between Kyiv and Berlin also poses an increasing threat to Polish interests. Germany could also leverage its position economically: the dominance of German industry might constrain Polish sectors within supply chains, and Poland could become less attractive to the US—for instance, in the energy sector, which currently serves as a pillar of the Polish-American alliance.
Furthermore, this special relationship with the US would grant Germany even greater influence within the EU. This implies that German priorities—such as an energy transition tailored to benefit German technologies—could dictate the direction of change for Poland. What, then, are the potential upsides of a “German-led” NATO 3.0 in Europe? Above all, it would foster the continent’s economic and political stability.
Does Poland stand a chance of replacing Germany?
Does Poland have the potential to replace Germany as the US’s primary ally in Europe? Not at the moment. Despite the tremendous growth of the Polish economy and the struggles facing Germany’s, our neighbor’s GDP remains vastly larger. Its financial and industrial resources allow Berlin to exert greater influence within the EU. Germany also possesses a network of influence within EU institutions, as well as partnerships with France and other major powers.
Therefore, the focus must be on ourselves, though under the current government, it will be difficult to translate our growing economic potential (in certain areas—specifically new technologies—we are vastly outperforming Germany) and military strength into greater political clout.
However, it is worth diversifying partnerships—intensifying relations with the US, France, and the Baltic and Nordic states—to reduce dependence on German policy stances. We should invest in technology and the energy sector, and build soft power within the EU (through active diplomacy, participation in European initiatives, and regional partnerships).
Above all, we need to pursue a pragmatic policy toward Germany: cooperating where it is beneficial, while maintaining a firm stance on issues of sovereignty and security. It is a pity, however, that the last two and a half years have largely been wasted in this regard. One can only hope that the next administration will be far more assertive toward Berlin.
Why is this topic important for Poland?
It concerns the future balance of power within NATO.
Could affect Poland’s position in relations with the USA.
Relates to the security of Central and Eastern Europe.
It is significant for future policy regarding Russia and Ukraine.
Germany and Poland in figures
Germany’s GDP: approx. €4.5 trillion
Poland’s GDP: approx. €0.9 trillion
Germany’s defense spending: over 2% of GDP
Poland’s defense spending: approx. 4–5% of GDP
Germany is the EU’s largest economy
Poland is among the NATO countries that are most rapidly expanding their military capabilities
This article originally appeared on June 9, 2026, in the Polish language in Tysol here: https://tysol.pl/opinie/niemcy-zandarmem-europy-z-ramienia-usa-czy-warszawa-ma-szanse-zastapic-berlin,177092
