Prof. Grzegorz Górski
A few months ago I wrote that in the face of a failure in the war with Ukraine, Russia would be forced to generate a number of additional conflicts – hard blows. For only in this way it can force the “Collective West” into a “general settlement.” This way Russia could achieve a minimum of goals in Ukraine, which the West – wanting to finally “end these spilling conflicts” – will sell without a blink of an eyelid.
Despite the recapture of Kherson by the Ukrainians, the Russians have almost completely paralyzed telecommunications and communication in this country with a series of rocket attacks, and most Ukrainians are without electricity. At the same time, the Russians not only provoked strong tensions in Moldova but also deprived the country of electricity and other energy resources. There were also “problems with oil and gas supplies to Hungary”.
IF YOU THINK THAT A MISSILE ATTACK ON POLAND IS A MISTAKE, YOU ARE DEEPLY WRONG.
Russia went ahead with the plan I described above with the full energy spurred by the defeat suffered at the G20 Summit. She couldn’t wait any longer. Meanwhile…
BBC : “Missiles land in Poland, killing two”
CNN : “Missiles reportedly land in Poland, killing two”
The BBC’s security correspondent, before even the Russians declared the case to be a “provocation to escalate” (without specifying by whom, of course), already knows that “this doesn’t appear to be a deliberate attack”. There are already voices that “the matter needs to be clarified”. It is best to set up an international commission and investigate. The “Collective West” would like to have it “examined” forever. It’s a road to nowhere.
Back in March, Stoltenberg said that there were no blueprints for NATO’s response to such situations. We know this because Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia made serious attempts to activate NATO’s Art. 4 when our borders from Belarus were attacked. These attempts were not “received positively.”
Our anticipation of the allies’ reactions will only encourage Russia to take further action. I’d love to be wrong, but on the next Russian move a couple of rockets will fly – sorry – they’ll just land farther away.
Today, the entire state of our air forces should be put on full alert and permanently monitor the entire eastern-northern border.
Today, a decision should be made on the deployment of the division from Żagań or Szczecin to the Masurian region.
Today, we should announce maneuvers of the Polish Navy and Air Force in the Baltic Sea to close air access to Królewiec.
Today, we should demand immediate support for our air and missile defense from our most important allies (US and UK).
Only with such actions, we will respond to Russia in an understandable way. But more importantly, we will force our allies to take further decisive action before Russia’s escalating drive spreads even wider and more painfully. And let us remember that after February 24 we did not wait for the West to define the Russian attack on Ukraine, but we stirred up both the Americans and Europe by advocating for the right position in assessing Putin’s aggression.
If anyone still has any doubts about where Russia wants to go in the near future, let them remember the words of President Lech Kaczyński killed in Smolensk, with the only difference being that the Russians decided to change the order of attack. They decided that it was not worth wasting time on the Baltic states but it was necessary – by striking Poland – to paralyze the entire system of support for Ukraine’s military effort. We shall not underestimate this fact.
Now every hour counts…