Dr. Cezary Mech: “The German parliamentary elections result is very advantageous to Poland”
The CDU (Christian Democratic Party) – SPD (Socialist Democratic Party ) Coalition policy was very unfavorable to Poland; thanks to SPD’s upset and FDP’s (Free Democratic Party) return to Parliament – the attempt to superimpose a French-German dictate over Europe, and the complete marginalization of Poland is crumbling – Cezary Mech, an economist, tells PAP (Polish Press Agency).
More than 3 weeks ago the German parliamentary elections were won by the CDU/CSU Coalition. Since the previous coalition partner of the Christian Democrats – the SPD have decided to join the opposition – a coalition with FDP and the Green Party is the only way to avoid expedited elections.
It seems that the result of the German Parliamentary elections is very positive for Poland. The expectation was that the SPD/CDU partnership will remain in place and thus continue its very unfavorable policies for Poland, policies based on the alliance with France, on anti-American sentiments and on making deals with Russia – Cezary Mech told PAP.
His assessment is that the preceding cooperation between Germany and France in maintaining control over the European Union – caused huge disproportions on a global scale and was, to a large degree, founded on an anti-Americanism.
That is why it is obvious that American policy was effective. Tension between Germany and USA was reduced, which allowed the German economy to develop on a scale unseen since 2011 – a 2.1% economic growth is projected. It also caused groups which hoped to profit from anti-American platform to suffer defeat. SPD was the biggest loser, and on the other hand, FDP – which has a very pro-American stance got back into the game – the expert remarked.
As he added, “the American-German confrontation never happened, despite the fact that it’s Germany and not China – who is the Unites States’ chief competitor as far as leadership in technologies“.
Mech recounted that in the most recent power structure FDP never made it into Parliament. “Now that American measures have brought about FDP’s success – therein lies the factor which will tone down anti-American actions“ he pointed out.
As he said, the economic boom which we are seeing in the world is due to the fact that the US is not rapidly pursuing an economic war with Germany or China – which could have been the fear after a Trump victory.
Consequently – the global GDP growth has expedited by 0.3%. An exceptional situation has transpired – all OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries have noted growth. This is only the 3rd such case in the past 50 years – argued Cezary Mech.
In his opinion, FDP will bequest the Department of Finance – during coalition negotiations.
As far as the Euro currency zone, FDP is not in favor of subsidizing the euro zone, mainly France and countries in Southern Europe. It is even said that FDP is ready to accept that these Southern European states exit the euro zone. This makes the pressure put on us to enter this zone contrary to Poland’s interests – fizzle out – he said.
As far as Greece, according to him, a scenario that Greece will depart the euro zone is possible.
Up to now, the German policy was to show Greece a giant bat and beat her up, as a warning to others, regardless weather she is able to pay her debts or not – to let her die. The American policy and that of FDP – is somewhat different, either permit Greece to file bankruptcy or to leave the euro zone, thus getting rid of this huge burden – he pointed out.
He simultaneously admitted that this might be negatively assessed by capital markets – because, all of a sudden, it may be the case that Greek assets are in the drachma currency.
This is the logic behind a constant escape of capital from Greece, since pricing in euro is threatened – he explained.
In the opinion of Cezary Mech, it is also essential that Greece plays a big role in American politics – because it constitutes a natural counterweight to Turkey.
That is why the stigmatizing of Greece will come to an end. Of course bankruptcy or Grexit from the euro will take place at the expense of the wealthier part of society and pensioners. Meanwhile being stuck in the current situation prevents Greece from having any rational economic policy. It is much the same with Italy, for whom being in the euro zone means a slow death – the expert pointed out.
As he observed, FDP wants to substantially decrease taxes. The CDU formulated similar although milder proposals.
So now they have a chance to be carried out. This will help fulfill the expectations of the United States – who always insisted that Germany should begin to spend more, consume more – because the global imbalance is connected with Germany’s humongous budget surplus . With SDP in the government – this previous policy would be continued. As would the economic confrontation with USA – said Mech.
Moreover, thanks to SDPs’ defeat, the attempt to impose onto Europe a French-German dictate will be ineffective – the expert believes.
This entire policy, which seemed in full speed, bringing on a complete marginalization of Poland and the criticism of what an nonconstructive partner Poland can be, is falling apart – Mech scrutinized.
And he continued:
The elimination of the German-French tandem – which was based on anti-Americanism is favorable – because all types of activities will be subject to temperance due to our very strong relations with USA . Surprising to public opinion situations on the part of the Polish government may even transpire. Its actions may be perceived as backing out of certain postulates, but this will be in connection to behind the scenes policy – it will be the price paid for reducing other threats.
As for Nordstream 2, according to this expert – it’s foreseeable that this project “will enjoy growing success but only on paper”.
The idea is to persuade Russia on one hand to cooperate with the American-Israeli coalition in the Middle East, on the other, to co-work on policies related to China. Poland has to be very careful at this juncture, so that possible compensation to Russia, in exchange for changes in her policy – would not take place at our expense. From the other side, USA wants to maximize its profits from conventional energy – by pushing the export of gas. For this reason all actions related to Nordstream 2 are contrary to American interests – he described.
Mech assessed as very advantageous for the US, but also for Poland, that FDP supports lifting subsidies for green energy, including tax relief.
Thanks to this all the efforts to pressure Poland into establishing atomic energy and other very expensive energy sources on its territory, at the expense of our coal will dwindle. The challenge for Polish politics is to take advantage of changes in German policy, also on this issue – just when this point of FDP’s program might be sacrificed in return for the coalition with the Greens – he pointed out.
Thanks to the German election results – it can be expected that German-American tension will decrease and the German-French alliance will weaken. It seems that Poland will be a beneficiary of this outcome as far as political issues are concerned. Germans most probably will decide to continue transfers to East/Central European countries, just when everything looked like – at our expense – the alliance between Germany and France would accelerate and we would be the proverbial “whipping boy”
– summarized Cezary Mech.